As a second grader in the United States, I often used to debate who the best pitcher was with my friends. “Win’s would be their primary evidence. “A pitcher with the highest number of wins is the best.” Even though I knew nothing about Sabermetrics, I felt something was wrong with that. Even if a pitcher gives up 5 runs, he can get his win if the team scores 10. But if a pitcher gave up 0 and the team scored 0, it would be a “no-decision.” Not even a small compliment. How is this fair?
That became my source of yearning for Sabermetrics.
Officially speaking, Sabermetrics is the empirical tool used in baseball (originally from SABR: Society for American Baseball Research). But I would say it’s a philosophy. I do the exact same thing with the TruthReview: isolating variables.
FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is a good example to use when explaining Sabermetrics. One of the most important factors in judging a pitcher’s performance would be their ERA (Earned Run Average). Is this fair then? No. ERA doesn’t take into account the level of defense a pitcher has. If the shortstop makes a diving catch, your ERA may be saved from skyrocketing. On the other hand, FIP introduced by Sabermetrics, factors out variables and evaluates only what the pitcher controls: Strikeouts, Walks, Hit By Pitches, and Home Runs.
I would call it “baseball fact-checking.” When I use this logic in the form of codes on my website, I categorize evidence into either “Direct” or “Circumstantial.” FIP is Direct. ERA is Circumstantial. Sabermetrics is all about stripping away luck and noise. You would be wrong if you thought it’s just advanced math; it’s a truth-finding journey. My view shifted into looking at the process before the results. Did he hit his spot? Was the spin rate high enough? If you want to win the last game of the season, you need to rely on skill, not luck.