I believe I mentioned how I considered adding a “validity map” to my Truth Review fact-checking tool which visualizes the origins of a claim. In baseball, this would be something called the Heat Map.
Catcher Framing:
Catcher Framing has come a long way both in the general and data history of baseball. Previously, catchers were considered mere backstops. However, data proved this wrong. The league’s best defensive catchers are now expected not only to be able to stop runners from stealing bases, but also “steal strikes.” Catchers catch the ball slightly outside the zone and move it in so smoothly that the umpire is fooled. We can quantify this now. We now evaluate through data how many “Runs Saved” a catcher generates behind the batter’s box. It turned catcher framing into a high-value commodity in the baseball market. Think of it like a hidden variable in a regression analysis that makes everything make sense.
The Defensive Shift (RIP):
Before recent changes to the rule, the Shift was the ultimate product of baseball data analytics. Teams visualized literally every ball a player hit for 5 years through a mapping technology called Spray Charts. Suppose a right-handed batter pulls 80% of the time. Why put a fielder on the right? The Dodgers maximized this under manager Dave Roberts starting in 2016. Roberts would position an infielder in short right field against a lefty hitter that pulled the majority of his at-bats. My little brother would sit puzzled, asking, “Is that allowed?” I answered, “The data says he’s going to hit it there.”
My interests in data storytelling closely align to these strategies. The Shift was a story developed based on historical data. “Past behavior is what predicts future behavior.” It’s the same thought process I refer to whenI ask students to map evidence for their arguments. If most of the evidence you have point to one conclusion, your argument would need to “shift” to align with it. Your position your argument where the truth is most likely to arrive.
One lesson from data in the MLB is that intuition can often be a misleading indicator. We are tricked by our eyes, but numbers—the spin rates, the exit velocities, the catch probabilities—they tell you the truth and truth only. This is the kind of story I want to tell.